How to beat David Miller

It'll take big money and one clear candidate -- but it can be done, starting now

By ROB GRANATSTEIN

Last Updated: 26th October 2008, 5:04am


Roll call!

All serious entrants for the job of mayor of Toronto, step forward.

This is not a dress rehearsal. This is the real thing.

To win this somewhat-coveted job away from the incumbent, David Miller, on Nov. 8, 2010, will take nothing less than a total commitment, starting now.

It's a two-year job running for mayor. It demands the ability to raise about $1.5 million.

Those are the basic requirements -- along with a winning campaign plan, panache, name recognition, political acumen and debating skills, never mind being able to manage an $8-billion-a-year corporation covering everything from garbage to budgeting to hockey rinks.

ONE ON ONE

Oh, and if it's not mano-a-mano, forget about it. Any vote split -- and it would only happen on the centre-right because no lefty will battle Miller -- would benefit the reigning king.

So, if anyone is really interested in dethroning Miller, step up.

John Tory gave it a run in 2003, when there was no incumbent and when he and Miller started in the low single digits in the polls behind Barbara Hall.

Tory feels with a little more time he might have been able to nip Miller at the finish line (although an antidote for the island airport debate would have helped).

"Anything less than two years is not enough time to cover the ground you need to cover," Tory said.

Plus, you need a fat bankroll. To compete, the contender will need pamphlets and signs in all corners of the city, radio and even TV ad time along with a battle-ready campaign operation.

In addition, candidates can't raise or spend any money until 2010, and candidates can only collect $2,500 per contributor. The biggest money factor is any campaign debt is personal debt.

This time, Miller starts from a position of power. Despite a less-than-stellar record, he has a major base of support. His policies may infuriate many Torontonians, but as one insider put it, if you live in an apartment, don't have a car and don't see your water bill, life hasn't been so terrible.

Miller buried the bad news at the start of his latest reign -- the land-transfer tax, the vehicle registration tax. By the time November 2010 hits, who knows where this city and province will be financially and mentally?

"I think he's been a fine mayor," said John Laschinger, the brains behind the Miller campaigns of 2003 and 2006. "People respect him when he represents the city. He's good looking, straight talking."

Laschinger adds the Miller broom so many pundits and residents say got lost sweeping out Mel Lastman, has actually kept City Hall scandal free.

DON'T DO A LEDREW

Laschinger's advice to anyone seeking the mayor's chair is that they have to know the city.

"Stephen LeDrew jumped in in 2006 and showed he didn't understand how the city works and how it is funded," Laschinger said. LeDrew took 1.3% of the vote.

"If you're going to run you have to have vision, you have to be able to answer the question: What would you do as mayor? You have to have money, too.

"A lot of people get mentioned, but few show," Laschinger said.

The list of candidates kicking the tires is long. Councillors Karen Stintz, Denzil Minnan-Wong, Rob Ford, Michael Thompson, Heart and Stroke CEO Rocco Rossi, even Pinball Clemons are all being mentioned. Plus the George Smitherman talk won't go away.

But who can actually knock out the blond taxer?

If you look at the federal and provincial election results, Toronto isn't the Tory town it was many years ago. Political insiders believe it's going to take a Liberal to knock off the NDP mayor we have.

One insider points to the centre and right teaming up to run a slate of candidates -- not a party system, but a group called "Vision for Toronto," or something like that.

Those people, led by their candidate for mayor, would actually have to have a vision for Toronto, opposed to the NDP agenda, something that would pin Miller into a corner and that could be credibly sold to the public as real change.

Council would also need a few less Howard Moscoes and Sandra Bussins and a few more Case Ootes, Brian Ashtons, Peter Milczyn, and Mark Grimes, who aren't aligned with the NDP hard core and would help change the way business is done at City Hall.

Finally, is Miller beatable?

"Everybody in politics is beatable," John Tory says. "Anyone who thinks they are not beatable has taken the first step to be beatable."