C2C Gerald Celente

Live Chat with Gerald Celente
Transcript from February 26, 2008


Lex
Hi everyone-- and thanks for joining us for our live chat with our special guest, Gerald Celente. Welcome Gerald and all of our participants.

Lex
As the founder of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente is well respected for his track record of picking business, consumer, political, and economic trends before they come to pass. It is his job to see the future and understand how the issues and events of today will determine the trends of tomorrow.

Singularity6
Gerald, I am interested in trends that can help me make wise investment choices generally or specifically. Is your newsletter appropriate for this purpose? If not, can you recommend sources?

Gerald Celente
We don't give specific investment advice but do show what trends are developing to prepare you for the future. We provide trendposts to profit.

maverick
Greetings from Cincinnati. Gerald, your thoughts on our current inflationary mess?

Gerald Celente
Look at prices of oil and the basket of commodities ... record levels. It's a simple formula...the more the $ is devalued, the more everything costs. This is just the beginning. We... and most of the world will experience an inflationary cycle as never before.

Rocky
Mr. Celente, which event or trend in 2008 will have a significant impact or change on America - for better or worse over the next few years?

Gerald Celente
The Panic of '08. We forecast that the economic future will be worse than the Great Depression...failing banks, brokerages, cities default...

indigo
I'd like to ask what types of businesses or jobs will withstand the economic times ahead and also how much higher do you see gold going?

Gerald Celente
We've been spot on with our gold forecasts beginning in 2001 when we called the bottom...as for the top...we're forecasting Gold $2000.

kayoglass
Can you give us insight as to whether or not we will remain a free market or will we be facing martial law?

Gerald Celente
Anything is possible... If there is a terrorist attack or massive riots from an economic downturn ... as there were during the Depression, there could well be martial law. Also, we could see, as they did with the 1933 Emergency Banking Act, citizens forced to return their gold to the gov't.

Guest
Gerald, since you look into political trends, what's your impression of where the 2008 US election is headed?

Gerald Celente
We don't have a great track record when it comes to elections because they are personality driven, etc. There is still an outside chance for a wild card candidate ... third party ...not Nader. Also, whomever of the dems or reps is elected...we forecast that the people will lose.

Guest
What trends are we looking at worldwide for organized religion?

Gerald Celente
A decline in organized religion and a rise in the "spirituality" movement ... look for gurus coming out of the woodwork as desperate people look for salvation...

Stark Raving
Gerald, thank you for this opportunity to chat. How do things look to you now vs. at the beginning of the year when your dire forecasts gained attention?

Gerald Celente
Current events form future trends. Look at the data between yesterday and today. The $ is at record lows against the euro. Oil $101, consumer confidence at five year lows, wholesale inflation up 7.4 percent. Home prices fell in Jan to the lowest level since records began nine years ago...it will all get much worse.

Mufaso
What countries are doing better than the U.S. overall?

Gerald Celente
Check out the OECD data and pick a field. Quality of life, Denmark, Ireland, Norway. The US doesn't win, place, or show on health, longevity, education ... we used to be #1 on all OECD fields relative to socioeconomic issues.

David
Government growth on all 3 levels seems to be growing at an unabated pace; how can this top heavy extortion of national wealth and liberty continue? Do you see major domestic unrest ahead?

Gerald Celente
You're correct...gov't jobs are among the fastest growing field. There will be a retrenchment. Yes, we'll see tax protests, riots and unrest. Also, violent crime will be on the rise as well.

Green Tara
Mr. Celente, my question for you is, how do you see the Green or Eco movement going in America? It's starting to become more and more discussed, do you think it will ever become mainstream?

Gerald Celente
We call it the smart movement ... not green. This is going to one of the largest growth oppt'ys for decades..."Conservation Engineers" ... Yankee frugality.

B3
Love your work Gerald. American economists say that without bad employment numbers, the US isn't in a recession. I contend that India and China are our employment pools (since out-sourcing everything you can imagine away from US soil). Both India and China are experiencing layoffs due to our declining business activity. Therefore (de facto by linear logic and real deductive reasoning that should prevail), the US IS experiencing layoffs. I have worked for power companies since the 1970's. In the last 3 years, my raises haven’t covered my power bill increases (alone). That has to tell you something. We’re in a recession and, to use a popular phrase that I believe I’ve heard you use before, "we’re all freakin’ doomed!" Comment?

Gerald Celente
Thanks, we are in recession! Median household income is below 1999 levels. We call it a "Plantation Economy." Wages and benefits are lagging way behind inflation. And inflation will get much worse.

aaaa
What would be the best career choice for college students?

Gerald Celente
Anything having to do with health care ... still oppty's in tech ... "green" is going to be really big...

Guest
What can one person do to try and keep their neck above water in these kinds of times?

Gerald Celente
Don't buy a damn thing you don't need. look for new opportunities by looking beyond the mainstream think. Local goods produced..."clean foods", micro farming ... herbal remedies ... etc

Jayhawk
Gerald, the banking system seems to very fragile due to the sub-prime mess. Do you expect the government to intervene as in England?

Gerald Celente
Yes ... get ready for some big crashes ... the more they bail them out, the more it costs us. There is a defacto devaluation of the $. The more they print, the cheaper it becomes. And they will print hundreds of billions to bail out banks.

Eddie
Mr. Celente, honored to speak with you here. How fast will things decline to crisis conditions...hyperinflation...elements of market chaos? Do you think interruption of transport...supply...food crises...etc. are possible? How soon?

Gerald Celente
Thank you...it's happening now...look at commodity prices. I just paid $500 for 3/4 tank of heating oil!!!

plasticpaddy
Gerald, do you have a forecast for silver?

Gerald Celente
We don't do silver...gold is our specialty...but silver appears to be very strong and should stay high as gold goes up.

Newfie
What's the next commodity to move now that gold is so high?

Gerald Celente
It appears to be grains... but gold has a long way to go. Accounting for inflation, it's $875 per ounce price in 1980 = over $2000 today. and today is much worse than 1980...I was trading gold back then as well and the conditions are much, much worse now for many reasons that I don't have the time to illustrate now...i.e. back then there was no China, India or Russia in the markets competing for the metal on the exchanges.

David
Like Cassius Clay I'll throw my gold into the river before I give it to the government.

Gerald Celente
Or get it out of the country

TN TRAV
Gerald, what kind of tech trends are on the way....what is going to be the next iPod?

Gerald Celente
Oh ... easy...when everything you see on the PC can be as easily seen on the TV ... about 4 years away ... maybe 3. As long as there is net neutrality.

Guest
Please don't forget that if Martial Law is declared, not only our gold will be taken, so will our guns, food, medicine, supplies… pretty much anything that could help us survive on our own without the help of the government.

Gerald Celente
You could be right...but there are also counter movements, such as secessionist movements in Vermont etc... As the man said, "Now is the time for all good men (and women) to come to the aid of their country." When people understand they have power, they won't bend to political forces.

Guest
Gerald, how do you see the weakening economy in the US impacting Canada's economy?

Gerald Celente
We see it affecting the globe. Put yourself in 1930...that's about where we are. The stage will also be set for WWIII ...

Lydia in Nashville
Gerald, do you see a trend toward people having more home gardens? I live in an urban area, but I have built raised garden beds for summer vegetables. I just wonder if you see more people going in this direction.

Gerald Celente
We call it "Edible Landscaping" and have been writing about it since the mid '90's. Look at the massive recalls...I do my best to avoid corporate food...and use to grow most of our own.

Guest
Following up. What kind of defensive position should we take personally and financially? Gold is a no brainer...but what about food storage...retiring to rural areas...gaining self-sufficiency to the degree we can. Are these things we need to attend to now...this year ? I'm trying to get your deeply researched 'sense' of how fast things can get chaotic.

Gerald Celente
Plan now for the worst. I like small towns that have a self sufficient environment. That's why I live where I do (Upstate NY). Local farms and producers of just about everything I need. Also, think about an escape plan i.e. terrorism. When 9/11 happened I was prepared...since I'd been writing about it happening for years ("2001 won't be our year, trend seer says," USA Today 14 Dec. 2000.) It costs nothing to be prepared. We don't provide financial advice, but we forecast that the Swiss franc will continue to strengthen against the $.

kayoglass
Will this hurt rich people at all, or just kill the middle class?

Gerald Celente
The very rich won't feel it...

Meyac
Gerald I read that house prices were on the rise, is this true?

Gerald Celente
Home prices in 20 US cities fell in December by the most on record. Sales of existing home in the US fell in January to the lowest level since records began and prices slid for the sixth time in seven months.

stargate
Gerald how about our transportation system for all those truck drivers ???

Gerald Celente
There will be a retrenchment...the corporate structure is built upon shipping large quantities far distances...with $4 a gallon gas, more movement toward local.

Guest
I am in my mid twenties, will I have social security when I retire?

Gerald Celente
Probably...but the question is, what will it be worth...probably not much.

Stark Raving
Do you have any thoughts on whether the internet bullion banks, BullionVault and GoldMoney, are safe? Are they the nucleus of a new trend?

Gerald Celente
They are the nucleus of a new trend ... can't vouch for their safety.

Jayhawk
Would you recommend that people move out of the big cities and into a rural environment?

Gerald Celente
I'm originally a Bronx guy and have lived in cities for many years ... Now I live in a small town and have made investments in Kingston, NY ... the first capital of NY...to me, it's the ideal model of what use to be great ... walking distance to much of what you need...neighborhoods etc...There will be a big move to small towns...especially as crime increases.

Guest
Do you see an end to America's meddling in the Middle East?

Gerald Celente
Yes, when there is an alternative energy...and we believe there will be...beyond nuclear., wind, solar, bio. check out Infinite-Energy.com.

Guest
Are the same factors affecting Europe, Australia, the Far East?

Gerald Celente
Very much so...When the world econ. slows down, watch out for China...a billion and half people and a million problems...riots abound.

Oxcart
Gerald, do you see this as a opportunity for OPEC to drop the dollar as the primary currency?

Gerald Celente
We believe there is an unwinding of the $ now as both a petro and reserve currency and the players are trying to do it in an orderly way so as not to get stuck with cheap bucks. Also, the cheaper the dollar goes and the more of them that they have, they'll be buying up more of the USA ... i.e. Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns, etc.

minalien
With the problems that China has had with producing unhealthy products and with high unemployment rate, do you believe that the United States will end outsourcing and return industrialism to the United States to help stimulate the economy?

Gerald Celente
Not as long as the Republicans and Dems are in power...they've outsourced jobs and as you saw in the ans. to the last questions, they're buying up our banks. They call them "Sovereign Wealth Funds." We call the foreign countries. And whomever owns the banks owns the country ... It's the golden rule...the one that has the gold rules.

Curious
Do you foresee "them" declaring a "bankers' holiday" and officially devaluing the currency?

Gerald Celente
That's the way we've been forecasting it. A lovely word, "holiday." Orwell would be proud of them.

butterbat
I am constantly amazed at the continued growth of new discretionary (and expensive) products that continue to be popular. While I suppose it helps the economy, it seems diametrically opposed to the green movement, by unnecessarily using resources.

Gerald Celente
We estimate about 30-35 percent of US will still have discretionary purchasing power ... and let's face it...people buy junk until they are forced out of it when their income dries up.

Vegasric
Gerald.. my questions is about the declined of society and the arts. In a book called The Decline of the West, by Oswald Spengler, he talks about how when art mocks society, that society is at a point where there is no repairing it. Do you think we are at this point in the Arts and Media-- that our society is on a decline and there is no hope of repairing it? Or do you feel it is just a temporary lack of social morals in terms of the arts and society?

Gerald Celente
I believe we are at the end of a Dark Age and the beginning of a Renaissance. Art is the way of finding the true meaning of the human spirit...just look back and you can see it. I'm a believer of a second Renaissance and do my best to support and encourage it...it, to me is one of our only salvations. We must raise the quality bar and stop stooping to the media and pol's lowest common denominators...We have, more than any other nation, the freedom to think and create.

Guest
"Clean Foods!" Do you think the American public will reject the use of GMO's? Not many know about them and those who do don't like what's going on.

Gerald Celente
We est. about 30% plus will put their money where their minds are and the rest will eat corporate food and keep eating junk. America is a first, second and third world nation in one.

Rocky
My economics book states that during inflationary times, gov't should raise taxes. Why are they doing just the opposite and giving us rebates?

Gerald Celente
These rebates are a con. The US should do what it tells other nations facing similar problems. Raise interest rates to protect the currency and cut gov't spending.

Curious
I haven't heard anything about a seccessionary movement. Please talk more about it.

Gerald Celente
Check out the Second Vermont Republic...We've been writing about it in our Trends Journal...click on our site and look for the top trends of 2007.

peanut
Will we need another FDR to help us out of the coming crisis?

Gerald Celente
FDR kept the country from revolution. If my memory serves me correctly (college days) the GDP in 1939 was a bad as it was during the worst days of the Depression...the only thing that got the US and world out of the Depression was WWII...that I know as a fact.

Paul
Hi Gerald, do you subscribe to the theory about the super elites planning to create the North American Union via the downfall of America and the dollar?

Gerald Celente
No, I believe they're scrambling as well...no one has ever seen anything like what's going on today in the global econ.

starlight22
Gerald in the 80's on 60 minutes a man invented a car that ran on water. He said the government would not allow the car to be produced and put on the market. Do you feel the government or people in high places, are stopping good ideas of new sources of energy which we could have had long ago?

Gerald Celente
Maybe people in oil as well...

Lex
We are out of time. Thanks Gerald-- fascinating stuff. And thanks to all of you for joining us tonight.