Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Turkmenistan’s Yoloten-Osman natural gas deposits


“Back in October, while the world was busy putting out the fires of a financial crisis that still burns, little-thought-of Turkmenistan made a bombshell of an announcement. It seemed to gather little notice at the time. But it could become much more important as the Russian-Ukraine dynamic gets worse.

“Gaffney, Cline and Associates, a British consulting firm, completed an audit of Turkmenistan’s Yoloten-Osman natural gas deposits. Based on GCA’s first results, the fields have a minimum of 4 trillion cubic meters of gas…and as much as 14 trillion cubic meters of gas, a truly staggering sum. The announcement put Yoloten-Osman among the four or five largest natural gas fields in the world.

“The country’s biggest field was Dowalatabad, a rich and extraordinary field in its own right. Yoloten-Osman is at least five times as large. And Turkmenistan has many gas fields not yet explored.

“Turkmenistan has the potential to rival Russia’s clout in natural gas and provide an alternative for Europe. By creating a pipeline from Turkmenistan, through Azerbaijan, Georgia and onto Turkey, the EU could bypass Russia entirely.

“You can be sure the Russians won’t like that. It’s as if Turkmenistan just drew an ace face up — and now Moscow is starting to sweat it a bit. Turkmenistan now has even more clout to peddle with eager Americans, Europeans and the Chinese — all who want Turkmen gas and the opportunity to build out the infrastructure. Russia will have to play the game like everyone else. Turkmenistan is in the driver’s seat.”

Sunday, January 11, 2009

motorhead messiah

Article location:http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/120/motorhead-messiah.html
December 19, 2007

By Clive Thompson

“Check it out. It's actually a jet engine," says Johnathan Goodwin, with a low whistle. "This thing is gonna be even cooler than I thought." We're hunched on the floor of Goodwin's gleaming workshop in Wichita, Kansas, surrounded by the shards of a wooden packing crate. Inside the wreckage sits his latest toy--a 1985-issue turbine engine originally designed for the military. It can spin at a blistering 60,000 rpm and burn almost any fuel. And Goodwin has some startling plans for this esoteric piece of hardware: He's going to use it to create the most fuel-efficient Hummer in history.

Goodwin, a 37-year-old who looks like Kevin Costner with better hair, is a professional car hacker. The spic-and-span shop is filled with eight monstrous trucks and cars--Hummers, Yukon XLs, Jeeps--in various states of undress. His four tattooed, twentysomething grease monkeys crawl all over them with wrenches and welding torches.

Goodwin leads me over to a red 2005 H3 Hummer that's up on jacks, its mechanicals removed. He aims to use the turbine to turn the Hummer into a tricked-out electric hybrid. Like most hybrids, it'll have two engines, including an electric motor. But in this case, the second will be the turbine, Goodwin's secret ingredient. Whenever the truck's juice runs low, the turbine will roar into action for a few seconds, powering a generator with such gusto that it'll recharge a set of "supercapacitor" batteries in seconds. This means the H3's electric motor will be able to perform awesome feats of acceleration and power over and over again, like a Prius on steroids. What's more, the turbine will burn biodiesel, a renewable fuel with much lower emissions than normal diesel; a hydrogen-injection system will then cut those low emissions in half. And when it's time to fill the tank, he'll be able to just pull up to the back of a diner and dump in its excess french-fry grease--as he does with his many other Hummers. Oh, yeah, he adds, the horsepower will double--from 300 to 600.

"Conservatively," Goodwin muses, scratching his chin, "it'll get 60 miles to the gallon. With 2,000 foot-pounds of torque. You'll be able to smoke the tires. And it's going to be superefficient."

He laughs. "Think about it: a 5,000-pound vehicle that gets 60 miles to the gallon and does zero to 60 in five seconds!"

This is the sort of work that's making Goodwin famous in the world of underground car modders. He is a virtuoso of fuel economy. He takes the hugest American cars on the road and rejiggers them to get up to quadruple their normal mileage and burn low-emission renewable fuels grown on U.S. soil--all while doubling their horsepower. The result thrills eco-evangelists and red-meat Americans alike: a vehicle that's simultaneously green and mean. And word's getting out. In the corner of his office sits Arnold Schwarzenegger's 1987 Jeep Wagoneer, which Goodwin is converting to biodiesel; soon, Neil Young will be shipping him a 1960 Lincoln Continental to transform into a biodiesel--electric hybrid.

His target for Young's car? One hundred miles per gallon.

This is more than a mere American Chopper--style makeover. Goodwin's experiments point to a radically cleaner and cheaper future for the American car. The numbers are simple: With a $5,000 bolt-on kit he co-engineered--the poor man's version of a Goodwin conversion--he can immediately transform any diesel vehicle to burn 50% less fuel and produce 80% fewer emissions. On a full-size gas-guzzler, he figures the kit earns its money back in about a year--or, on a regular car, two--while hitting an emissions target from the outset that's more stringent than any regulation we're likely to see in our lifetime. "Johnathan's in a league of his own," says Martin Tobias, CEO of Imperium Renewables, the nation's largest producer of biodiesel. "Nobody out there is doing experiments like he is."

Nobody--particularly not Detroit. Indeed, Goodwin is doing precisely what the big American automakers have always insisted is impossible. They have long argued that fuel-efficient and alternative-fuel cars are a hard sell because they're too cramped and meek for our market. They've lobbied aggressively against raising fuel-efficiency and emissions standards, insisting that either would doom the domestic industry. Yet the truth is that Detroit is now getting squeezed from all sides. This fall, labor unrest is brewing, and after decades of inertia on fuel-economy standards, Congress is jockeying to boost the target for cars to 35 mpg, a 10 mpg jump (which is either ridiculously large or ridiculously small, depending on whom you ask). More than a dozen states are enacting laws requiring steep reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. Meanwhile, gas prices have hovered around $3 per gallon for more than a year. And European and Japanese carmakers are flooding the market with diesel and hybrid machines that get up to 40% better mileage than the best American cars; some, such as Mercedes's new BlueTec diesel sedans, deliver that kind of efficiency and more horsepower.

General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, in short, have a choice: Cede still more ground--or mount a technological counterattack.

Goodwin's work proves that a counterattack is possible, and maybe easier than many of us imagined. If the dream is a big, badass ride that's also clean, well, he's there already. As he points out, his conversions consist almost entirely of taking stock GM parts and snapping them together in clever new ways. "They could do all this stuff if they wanted to," he tells me, slapping on a visor and hunching over an arc welder. "The technology has been there forever. They make 90% of the components I use." He doesn't have an engineering degree; he didn't even go to high school: "I've just been messing around and seeing what I can do."

All of which raises an interesting possibility. Has this guy in a far-off Kansas garage figured out the way to save Detroit?

America's most revolutionary innovations, it has long been said, sprang from the ramshackle dens of amateurs. Thomas Edison was a home-schooled dropout who got his start tinkering with battery parts; Chester Carlson invented the photocopier in his cramped Long Island kitchen. NASA, desperate for breakthroughs to help it return to the moon, has set up million-dollar prizes to encourage private citizens to come forward with any idea, no matter how crazy. As the theory goes, only those outside big industries can truly reinvent them.

Goodwin is certainly an outsider. He grew up in a dirt-poor Kansas family with six siblings and by age 13 began taking on piecework in local auto shops to help his mother pay the bills. He particularly enjoyed jamming oversized engines into places no one believed they'd fit. He put truck engines inside Camaros, Grand Nationals, and Super Bees; he even put a methanol-fueled turbocharger on a tiny Yamaha Banshee four-wheeler. "We took that thing from 35 horsepower to 208," he recalls. "It was crazy. We couldn't put enough fins on the back to keep it on the ground." After dropping out of school in the seventh grade, he made a living by buying up totaled cars and making them as good as new. "That," he says, "was my school."

Along the way, Goodwin also adopted two views common among Americans, but typically thought to be in conflict: a love of big cars and a concern about the environment. He is an avid, if somewhat nonideological, environmentalist. He believes global warming is a serious problem, that reliance on foreign oil is a mistake, and that butt-kicking fuel economy is just good for business. But Goodwin is also guiltlessly addicted to enormous, brawling rides, precisely the sort known to suck down Saudi gasoline. (I spied one lonely small sports car in the corner of his garage, but he confessed he has no plans to work on it right now.) When he picked me up from my hotel, he drove a four-door 2008 Cadillac Escalade XL that should have had its own tugboat. He parallel parked it in one try.

If Goodwin is an artist, though, his canvas has been the Hummer. His first impression of the thing was inauspicious. In 1999, he bought an H1 in Denver and began driving it back to Kansas. Within 50 miles, the bolts in the transmission shook loose, forcing him to stop to fix it. "By the time I made it home, after three roadside repairs, I pretty much knew that the Hummer was not all it should be," he told me. He didn't think much of the 200 horsepower engine, either, which did "zero to 60 in two days. It was a piece of junk."

So Goodwin decided to prove that environmentalism and power could go together--by making his new lemon into exhibit A. First, he pulled the gas engine so he could drop in a Duramax V8, GM's core diesel for large trucks. Diesel technology is crucial to all of Goodwin's innovations because it offers several advantages over traditional gasoline engines. Pound for pound, diesel offers more power and torque; it's also inherently more efficient, offering up to 40% better mileage and 20% lower emissions in engines of comparable size. What's more, many diesel engines can easily accept a wide range of biodiesel--from the high-quality stuff produced at refineries to the melted chicken grease siphoned off from the local KFC.

"Think about it," Goodwin laughs. "A 5,000-pound vehicle that gets 60 miles to the gallon and will do zero to 60 in five seconds!"

Putting a diesel engine in the Hummer, however, required Goodwin to crack GM's antitheft system, which makes it a pain to swap out the engine. In that system, the engine communicates electronically with the body, fuel supply, and ignition; if you don't have all the original components, the car won't start. Goodwin jerry-rigged a set of cables to trick the engine into believing the starter system had broken, sending it into "fail-safe mode"--a backdoor mechanism installed at the factory. (At one point in his story, Goodwin wanders over to a battered cardboard box in the corner of the garage and hauls out an octopuslike tangle of wires--"the MacGyver," his hacking device. "I could have sold this for a lot of money on eBay," he chuckles.)

Once he'd picked the car's lock, Goodwin installed the Duramax and a five-speed Allison--the required transmission for a Duramax, which also helps give it race-car-like control and a rapid take off. After five days' worth of work, the Hummer was getting about 18 mpg--double the factory 9 mpg--and twice the original horsepower. He drove it over to a local restaurant and mooched some discarded oil from its deep fryer, strained the oil through a pair of jeans, and poured it into the engine. It ran perfectly.

But Goodwin wanted more. While researching alternative fuels, he learned about the work of Uli Kruger, a German who has spent decades in Australia exploring techniques for blending fuels that normally don't mix. One of Kruger's systems induces hydrogen into the air intake of a diesel engine, producing a cascade of emissions-reducing and mileage-boosting effects. The hydrogen, ignited by the diesel combustion, burns extremely clean, producing only water as a by-product. It also displaces up to 50% of the diesel needed to fuel the car, effectively doubling the diesel's mileage and cutting emissions by at least half. Better yet, the water produced from the hydrogen combustion cools down the engine, so the diesel combustion generates fewer particulates--and thus fewer nitrogen-oxide emissions.

"You can feed it hydrogen, diesel, biodiesel, corn oil--pretty much anything but water."

"It's really a fantastic chain reaction, all these good things happening at once," Kruger tells me. He has also successfully introduced natural gas--a ubiquitous and generally cheap fuel--into a diesel-burning engine, which likewise doubles the mileage while slashing emissions. In another system, he uses heat from the diesel engine to vaporize ethanol to the point where it can be injected into the diesel combustion chambers as a booster, with similar emissions-cutting effects.

Goodwin began building on Kruger's model. In 2005, he set to work adapting his own H1 Hummer to burn a combination of hydrogen and biodiesel. He installed a Duramax in the Hummer and plopped a carbon-fiber tank of supercompressed hydrogen into the bed. The results were impressive: A single tank of hydrogen lasted for 700 miles and cut the diesel consumption in half. It also doubled the horsepower. "It reduces your carbon footprint by a huge, huge amount, but you still get all the power of the Duramax," he says, slapping the H1 on the quarter panel. "And you can feed it hydrogen, diesel, biodiesel, corn oil--pretty much anything but water."

Two years ago, Goodwin got a rare chance to show off his tricks to some of the car industry's most prominent engineers. He tells me the story: He was driving a converted H2 to the SEMA show, the nation's biggest annual specialty automotive confab, and stopped en route at a Denver hotel. When he woke up in the morning, there were 20 people standing around his Hummer. Did I run over somebody? he wondered. As it turned out, they were engineers for GM, the Hummer's manufacturer. They noticed that Goodwin's H2 looked modified. "Does it have a diesel engine in it?"

"Yeah," he said.

"No way," they replied.

He opened the hood, "and they're just all in and out and around the valves and checking it out," he says. They asked to hear it run, sending a stab of fear through Goodwin. He'd filled it up with grease from a Chinese restaurant the day before and was worried that the cold morning might have solidified the fuel. But it started up on the first try and ran so quietly that at first they didn't believe it was really on. "When you start a diesel engine up on vegetable oil," Goodwin says, "you turn the key, and you hear nothing. Because of the lubricating power of the oil, it's just so smooth. Whisper quiet. And they're like, 'Is it running? Yeah, you can hear the fan going.'"

One engineer turned and said, "GM said this wouldn't work."

"Well," Goodwin replied, "here it is."

Goodwin's feats of engineering have become gradually more visible over the past year. Last summer, Imperium Renewables contacted MTV's show Pimp My Ride about creating an Earth Day special in which Goodwin would convert a muscle car to run on biodiesel. The show chose a '65 Chevy Impala, and when the conversion was done, he'd doubled its mileage to 25 mpg and increased its pull from 250 to 800 horsepower. As a stunt, MTV drag-raced the Impala against a Lamborghini on California's Pomona Raceway. "The Impala blew the Lamborghini away," says Kevin Kluemper, the lead calibration engineer for GM's Allison transmission unit, who'd flown down to help with the conversion. Schwarzenegger, who was on the set that day, asked Goodwin on the spot to convert his Wagoneer to biodiesel.

Observers of Goodwin's work say his skill lies in an uncanny ability to visualize a mechanical system in precise detail, long before he picks up a wrench. (Goodwin says he does much of his mental work during long drives.) "He has talent unknown to any mortal," says Mad Mike, Pimp My Ride's host. "He has this ability to see things so exactly, and I still don't know how he does it."

For his part, Goodwin argues he's merely "a problem solver. Most people try to make things more complicated than they are." He speaks of the major carmakers with a sort of mild disdain: If he can piece together cleaner vehicles out of existing GM parts and a bit of hot-rod elbow grease, why can't they bake that kind of ingenuity into their production lines? Prod him enough on the subject and his mellowness peels away, revealing a guy fired by an almost manic frustration. "Everybody should be driving a plug-in vehicle right now," he complains, in one of his laconic engineering lectures, as we wander through the blistering Kansas heat to a nearby Mexican restaurant. "I can go next door to Ace Hardware and buy a DC electric motor, go out to my four-wheel-drive truck, remove the transmission and engine, bolt the electric motor onto the back of the transfer case, put a series of lead-acid batteries up to 240 volts in the back of the bed, and we're good to go. I guarantee you I could drive all around town and do whatever I need, go home at night, and hook up a couple of battery chargers, plug one into an outlet, and be good to go the next day.

"Detroit could do all this stuff overnight if it wanted to," he adds.

In reality, Goodwin's work has begun to influence some of Detroit's top auto designers, but through curious and circuitous routes. In 2005, Tom Holm, the founder of EcoTrek, a nonprofit that promotes the use of alternative fuels, heard about Goodwin through the Hummer-junkie grapevine and hired him. When Holm showed GM the vehicles Goodwin converted, the company was duly impressed. Internally, Hummer executives had long been looking for a way to blunt criticism of the H2's gas-guzzling tendencies and saw Goodwin's vehicles as an object lesson in what was possible. So GM decided to flip the switch: It announced the same year that, beginning in 2008, it would convert its gasoline Hummers to run on ethanol; by 2010, it said, Hummers would be biodiesel-compatible.

"It was an influence," concedes Hummer general manager Martin Walsh, of the EcoTrek vehicles. "We wanted to be environmentally responsible by having engines in Hummers that run on renewable fuels." But until I contacted Hummer for this story, GM didn't know that the man behind those machines was none other than Goodwin.

GM's commitment is a start, however halting. Overall, though, Detroit still seems to be all but paralyzed by the challenges of fuel economy, emissions, and alternative fuels. And it's not just about greed or laziness: Talk to car-industry experts, and they'll point out a number of serious barriers to introducing radically new alternative-fuel vehicles on a scale that will make a difference. One of the highest is that low-emission fuels--biodiesel, ethanol, electricity, hydrogen, all of which account for less than 3% of the nation's fuel supply--just aren't widely available on American highways. This creates a chicken-and-egg problem. People won't buy alternative-fuel cars until it's easy to fill them up, but alternative fuel makers won't ramp up production until there's a viable market.

Goodwin admits all these things are true but believes the country could be weaned off gasoline in a three-step process. The first would be for Detroit to aggressively roll out diesel engines, much as Europe has already begun to do (some 50% of all European cars run diesel). In a single stroke, that would improve the nation's mileage by as much as 40%, and, because diesel fuel is already widely available, drivers could take that step with a minimum of disruption. What's more, given that many diesel engines can also run homegrown biodiesel, a mass conversion to diesel would help kick-start that market. (This could have geopolitical implications as well as environmental and economic ones: The Department of Transportation estimated in 2004 that if we converted merely one-third of America's passenger cars and light trucks to diesel, we'd reduce our oil consumption by up to 1.4 million barrels of oil per day--precisely the amount we import from Saudi Arabia.)

The second step in Goodwin's scheme would be to produce diesel-electric hybrid cars. This would double the mileage on even the biggest diesel vehicles. The third phase would be to produce electric hybrids that run in "dual fuel" mode, burning biodiesel along with hydrogen, ethanol, natural gas, or propane. This is the concept Goodwin is proving out in his turbine-enhanced H3 Hummer and in Neil Young's Lincoln: "At that point, your mileage just goes really, really high, and your emissions are incredibly low," he says. Since those vehicles can run on regular diesel or biodiesel--and without any alternative fuel at all, if need be--drivers wouldn't have to worry about getting stranded on the interstate. At the same time, as more and more dual-fuel cars hit the road, they would goose demand for genuinely national ethanol, hydrogen, and biodiesel grids.

For Goodwin, navigating this process is all about imagination and adaptability. "The point is to design cars that are flexible," he says. "You'll see a change in how vehicles are fueled in the future. Which fuel source will be the exclusive one or the one that'll take over the petroleum base is, you know, anybody's guess, so it's like the wild, wild West of fuel technology right now. I think it'll be a combination between a few different fuels. I know hydrogen will definitely come around."

Imagination and vision, of course, are often rewarded. As global pressure increases on the United States to reduce our carbon emissions, those rewards are likely to get juicier. Under some versions of legislation being considered in Congress, for example, companies voluntarily deploying superefficient vehicles in large fleets could be awarded substantial offsets. Take DHL, the FedEx rival: Goodwin says his company, SAE Energy, is negotiating with the shipper to convert 800 of its vehicles to dual fuel. "We could get them an offset of something like 70 cents a gallon," Goodwin says, "and reduce their cost of fuel by 50%."

Industry insiders and observers agree with many of Goodwin's prescriptions, particularly his concept of fuel flexibility. "We have to have alternatives," says Beau Boeckmann, vice president of California's Galpin Motors, the largest Ford dealership in the country, who recently partnered with Goodwin to convert a 2008 F450 truck to hydrogen and biodiesel. "Only with a combination of things can we get alternative fuels off the ground." Boeckmann believes hydrogen is the true "silver bullet" for ending greenhouse gases but thinks it'll take more than a decade to figure out how to create and distribute it cheaply. Mary Beth Stanek, GM's director of environment, energy, and safety policy, also agrees with the multifuel approach--and points out that this is precisely how Brazil weaned itself from regular gasoline. "They pull up to the pump, and they've got a whole bunch of different choices," she notes. She, too, predicts diesel will make a comeback because of its inherent fuel efficiency: "You will see more vehicles going back to diesel over a lot of different lines."

Yet in reality, American carmakers seem conspicuously slow on the uptake. Stanek is about as ardent a fan of alternative fuels as you're likely to find inside GM, but even she admits no one there is seriously thinking of abandoning the gasoline engine anytime soon. The 300-million-gallon U.S. biodiesel business is a fraction of the 12-billion-gallon ethanol one. And Detroit is extremely cautious about what the market can bear.

A Detroit carmaker does, of course, have to worry about selling millions of cars at reasonable prices. But we've been hearing this refrain for a long, long time. And with European and Japanese carmakers driving ever harder into our market--and with Chrysler having become just another meal for Cerberus Capital--this hardly seems like the time to be overly cautious. (Those ultralow-emission Mercedes BlueTec diesels, for example, include a four-wheel-drive sedan that gets 37 mpg and goes from zero to 60 in 6.6 seconds.) Moreover, after decades of consumer apathy, improving fuel economy and reducing carbon output are becoming urgent national priorities. The green groundswell has arrived, and, given the stakes, anyone who ignores it does so at his peril. If Detroit can't sell diesel now--especially a clean, high-performance, money-saving diesel--it never will.

With U.S. carmakers being stripped for parts, now is hardly the time for them to play it safe.

Goodwin, perhaps, can afford to be a visionary. He has the luxury of converting cars for fancy clients who'll pay handsomely to drive on higher moral ground. (He charges $28,000 for a "basic H2 conversion to diesel--custom concept cars cost far more.") The future of the American car will likely be won by an automaker that can split the difference--one that may innovate more slowly than Goodwin would like, but a hell of a lot faster than the Big Three.

Goodwin himself seems more oracle than implementer, slightly unsure of how his ideas could be brought to the masses. He's working on patenting aspects of his and Kruger's dual-fuel work and would love to license it to the big carmakers. But the truth is, he's a mechanic's mechanic--happiest when he's solving some technical puzzle. He loves getting his hands dirty, "throwing wrenches around" in his shop, pioneering some weird new way to fuel a car. Today, he's thinking about taking his wife's Infiniti, outfitting it with a tank of ether, and powering the engine via blasts of compressed air in the cylinders. "Zero emissions!" he crows. It's the visionary inventor's curse: constantly distracted by shiny objects.

Goodwin eyes the turbine, which he has dragged out to the center of the floor. Just for kicks, he says, he's thinking of mounting it on a wheelie board and firing it up. "I'd love to see how fast that goes," he says. "I'm just not sure how I'm going to steer it."

Correction: Johnathan Goodwin drove a Hummer H1 from Denver to Kansas in 1999, not 1990.

How the Baikal became Britain's favourite killing machine


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/mosl...g-machine.html

Sunday, Jan 11 2009
The usual suspect: How the Baikal became Britain's favourite killing machine

By Adam Luck

Last updated at 10:00 PM on 10th January 2009

This is a Baikal IZH-79, exhibit 'MAJ/4' in a recent crown court trial... and the new weapon of choice on our gunravaged streets. Live traced its alarmingly smooth passage from Russia to east London to reveal the macabre popularity of Britain's favourite killing machine
Baikal IZH-79

The Baikal IZH-79: The handgun can be bought for as little as £1,200 from gangs in the UK's largest cities

From where the detective-sergeant is standing – shielded from the bright summer sunshine in a doorway set back from Romford Road’s halal chip shops and East European-run car-wash forecourts – he can still clearly see the entrance to the Shah Jalal Mosque. He watches closely as the faithful start to spill out of the Islamic centre after prayers.

They trust their fate to God as they duck in and out of the traffic that clogs the arteries of Manor Park, a rundown suburb a couple of miles from what will be London’s 2012 Olympic Village.

DS Trevor Gardner’s targets are easy to spot. They are two young black men among a largely Bangladeshi congregation. Their swagger and bling are in sharp contrast to the traditional worshippers’ outfits of kurta and kufi.

Now gathering pace, the two leave their fellow worshippers behind before crossing the street and turning into Carlyle Road, unaware they are being shadowed by the detective. A few minutes later they reach the corner of the dog-leg road.

They turn left and left again before stopping at the front door of number 106. They pause momentarily before disappearing through the door of the Victorian terraced house. The property is identical to its neighbours bar the unkempt front garden.

Gardner now waits for about 15 minutes from his new vantage point. Then one of the pair saunters out of the house carrying a package in a blue plastic bag. Confident of his anonymity, he glances cursorily in both directions before approaching a silver Mercedes people carrier that’s just parked up. He ducks inside and 30 seconds later emerges without the bag.
Ricky Denty

Ricky Denty, 28, was jailed for six years after pleading guilty to possession of firearms and ammunition with intent to endanger life

The driver pulls away almost immediately. Ricky Denty, a member of a south London street gang called the Muslim Boys, is tall, black, well-muscled and shaven-headed and wears a smart leather jacket with a hoodie. He turns the vehicle into the traffic flowing along Romford Road where, just before hitting the Stratford one-way system, he finds he can go no further; a police car has pulled across his bows. Other police vehicles quickly congregate.

Nine officers from the Met’s SO19 armed support unit, dressed in black and kitted out with Heckler & Koch carbines, swarm around him. They shout clear instructions to Denty to get out of the car. He complies; he is spread across the bonnet and frisked while officers begin a search of the vehicle.

The package is found in a hidden compartment above the wheel arch of the Mercedes. Gardner’s colleagues warily remove layer after layer of tightly wrapped plastic and bubble wrap to reveal two silencers, 100 rounds of Czech and South African ammunition and two 9mm Baikal IZH-79 handguns. Black and compact, each gun fits comfortably in the palm of a teenager’s hand and weighs, unloaded, a modest 2lb.

A Baikal can be bought for as little as £1,200 from gangs in the UK’s larger cities. With the silencer, it can be used discreetly at close quarters, meaning targets rarely escape with their lives; it is so cheap, so reliable and so accurate that it has completely changed British gang culture and street crime.

Indeed, the police are unsurprised with their find. The Baikal is now so ubiquitous it’s known to both sides of the law simply as the ‘hitman kit’.

In the court case that follows his arrest, Denty pleads guilty to possession of a firearm and is jailed for six years. The file is added to the growing pile of identical offences. Baikals are flooding our streets.

In its 2008 report on the threat of organised crime to the UK, the Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) noted that since 2006 the seizures of guns in the country have increased both in number and in volume of weapons, and ‘of the seizures, there has been an increased trend of Baikal gas pistols converted to fire 9mm ammunition entering from Lithuania’.

Denty’s brace of Baikals ended their lives in August 2007 as exhibits labelled MAJ/2 and MAJ/4 in court No 5 of Snaresbrook Crown Court, east London. Designed to fire teargas pellets, they were produced in Russia, made lethal in Lithuania, smuggled into the UK by a well-run Eastern European gang – one gang member was so well enmeshed in British life he claimed incapacity benefit and had a series of eye operations on the NHS – and received by a British divorcee looking for some pin money.

The story of Denty’s Baikals – pieced together here for the first time – shows only too well how they have become as much a part of the fabric of British criminal life as crack cocaine and house burglary...

FROM RUSSIA...

Izhevsk is 2,500 miles east of Manor Park; draw a line from London to Izhevsk and Moscow appears at the 1,800-mile mark. It is a drab, cold backwater in the Urals, scarcely evolved from its communist past; there is a Lenin Street, a Karl Marx Street, a statue of Lenin on Soviet Street. Old buses, trams and Lada, Volga and Moskvich cars rattle and cough through the city. There is only the occasional gleaming black jeep.

Little of the money and glamour that has arrived in other parts of Russia with the explosion of capitalism has made its way to Izhevsk. And yet this grey, decaying outpost has a place in history. It is the centre of Russia’s arms industry, the birth place of the AK-47. Some 80 per cent of Russian guns are made here.

On this gloomy November day, President Dmitry Medvedev has dropped in (his visit has closed all airspace around the city for several hours). Hundreds of armed militia are on the streets as he reviews progress in the arms industry; he is banking on growth here to pull Moscow out of recession.

The two arms factories that produce the guns dominate the city. One, the Seventies industrial block that houses Izhevsky Mekhanichesky Zavod, is the home of the Baikal. Denty’s guns were made here but were never intended to kill. After World War II, Izhevsky developed the Makarov pistol for the Soviet military and police.

Production of Makarovs ceased in the early Nineties; the Baikal is a facsimile of this gun, with one modification: the barrel was to fire 8mm gas cartridges instead of bullets. In the anarchy that gripped Russia after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Baikals were used to ward off muggers or rapists with CS gas cartridges.

It was not long, however, before the world’s leading gangsters realised that with an easy modification, the Baikal could be an ideal substitute for the Makarov.

... TO LITHUANIA

On a potholed backstreet in Alytus, a small town in southern Lithuania, there is a row of lock-up garages with double wooden doors. They look rarely used but in fact they were the secret hub of a network of makeshift factories where, until recently, one of Lithuania’s most feared criminal syndicates, the Baubliai gang, converted Baikals into deadly weapons.

Most guns manufactured specifically to fire gas cartridges are made of cheap components and aren’t strong enough to fire real ammunition; the Baikal, though, is made of solid steel.

As well-established drug dealers, the Baubliai gang already controlled a criminal network that stretched from Russia to the UK. It was a simple step to add guns to their exports. Baikal pistols cannot be obtained legally in Lithuania but the gang bought vast quantities over the counter in Russia and neighbouring Latvia, where they are readily available. When bought in bulk (up to 1,000 pistols at a time) they cost between £8 and £10 each.

Only the senior members of the gang had the necessary equipment and expertise to rebore the pistols so they could fire 9mm Czech and South African ammunition. The barrels were also threaded to fit silencers, a demand of British criminals who were particularly keen to get their hands on the new product.

In Britain, where hand guns are outlawed, criminals had to rely on either crude makeshift weapons or incredibly expensive, hard-to-source pistols. The arrival of the Baikal changed all that – gang members such as Denty could now get hold of a reliable, cheap, deadly weapon with relative ease.

The Alytus production line converted countless weapons before a major joint operation last year by the Lithuanian police and secret services, SOCA and the Metropolitan Police smashed the ring in a dramatic armed raid. It led to the arrest of six men, including Remigijus Laniauskas.

In an earlier British court case of three other Lithuanian gun-runners, Laniauskas was named as the head of an organised crime group that had been supplying guns to the UK. With his shaven head, hard-lined features and bull neck – and his Soviet army training – Laniauskas presents a chilling figure, a man who now stands accused in Lithuania of bringing death to British streets.

... TO BRITAIN

The only thing that made the car transporter and its two cars stand out at Thurrock Services on the M25 was its Lithuanian number-plates. Police watched as two men got out of a car and walked over to the driver of the transporter.
Romas Dumbliauskas

Blind Lithuanian Romas Dumbliauskas was a senior member of the Alytus syndicate

They knew they were Lithuanian nationals Romas Dumbliauskas, 32, and Bernardas Kudarauskas, 32. Despite being blind, the thick set, softly spoken Dumbliauskas was a senior member of the Alytus syndicate. He says he lost his sight in a car accident but during an earlier trial for gang rape at which he was acquitted, one witness said he was blinded during a gang shoot-out in Amsterdam. He claimed incapacity benefit, had a series of eye operations on the NHS and went on to claim legal aid. His fellow British resident Kudarauskas was his trusted lieutenant, as well as his eyes and ears.

After a short discussion with the driver of the transporter, the pair returned to Dumbliauskas’s home in Trader Road, Beckton, east London, where he lived with his wife and daughter.

Three days later, police saw the pair, along with another man, driving to Carlyle Road, Manor Park. Armed police pulled them over. The gang were on their way to deliver their deadly order. In the car detectives discovered a bag under the front seat, inches from the feet of the third man, Danius Barzdaitis. The bag contained two Baikal pistols, two silencers and 72 rounds of Czech and South African 9mm ammunition.

The guns had been smuggled into the UK hidden inside vehicles. Dumbliauskas’s cover as a car dealer allowed him to import vehicles in which he hid weapons. Some of the guns were smuggled inside car batteries that had been lined with lead. This ensured they did not show up on X-rays. The transporters were driven across Europe by ‘mules’ with clean driving licences and no criminal records. The gang masters also paid private individuals already travelling to the UK to act as couriers.

But the guns still had to go through one further person. In order to distance themselves from the hardware, the gang ensured they were sold on to a ‘fence’ in the UK, who then sold them on the streets.

... TO MANOR PARK

At 5.30pm on an August afternoon, a black Vauxhall Corsa with two men inside pulls up in front of 106 Carlyle Road. Out of the house comes a dishevelled-looking woman who goes up to the car and talks to one of the men. He gets out and accompanies her into the house. Fifteen minutes later, the front door opens again and the man walks out, gets back into the car and drives off.

At 9pm the same car returns to Carlyle Road for a second visit. Minutes later the driver gets back in and drives off in the same direction that Denty had taken a few months before. A hidden armed police team wait until the driver reaches nearby Romford Road before making the move and, just yards from where Denty was arrested, they pull over the car.
Glenn Jacobs

Glenn Jacobs admitted possession of ammunition with intent to endanger life and was sentenced to four years in prison in 2007

Inside are Glenn Jacobs, who handles guns for the notorious Peckham Boys, and his driver Sammy Idemudia. Although Jacobs manages to escape in the chase that follows, police recover 55 rounds of 9mm Czech Sellier & Bellot and South African Pretoria Metal Pressing ammunition that Jacobs throws away. He is subsequently arrested.

The house on Carlyle Road has been under continuous police surveillance for four months. It transpires that the woman who lives there, 42-year-old divorcee Jeanette Hodges, is a fence for the Lithuanian syndicate. She also has an impressive wealth of underworld contacts in the UK, many through her son Trevor Hodges, who was then in jail for his part in a string of extremely violent car-jackings.

Trevor Hodges exploited his time inside to build up a lengthy client list for his mother, including members of some of London’s most notorious gangs, the Muslim Boys and the Peckham Boys; members of the latter were jailed for the murder of schoolboy Damilola Taylor.

Jeanette Hodges built up a friendship with Dumbliauskas when she began selling their cigarettes, so when her son’s contacts asked her to source guns she immediately turned to the Lithuanians. She could get guns within four to six weeks. The price was between £1,200 and £1,400 per gun if they were bought in bulk. A one-off order would cost £2,250.

After their four-month surveillance operation, the police raided Hodges’s house. They discovered 17 rounds of ammunition at her address. It was a small haul because she deliberately held the goods for the shortest amount of time possible.

The arrest of Hodges, along with that of Denty, Idemudia, Kudarauskas, Dumbliauskas, Barzdaitis and Jacobs meant that police had broken one of the main supply chains. According to SOCA, 9mm ammunition was going for 50p a round on the street; after breaking the Baubliai supply chain, prices went up to £3 a round. When the UK trials that followed came to a close, Barzdaitis walked free. However, he has since been arrested in Lithuania and charged with exporting firearms.

But SOCA is well aware that they can’t afford to be complacent. In their report last year they noted that Baikals are coming in to the UK in batches of up to 30 at a time. It is clear that the British police have a big and ongoing problem – they are dealing with a Hydra-headed monster.

SOCA is not alone in believing that our gun laws are due an overhaul. Andrew Frymann, who acted for the prosecution in the trial of Dumbliauskas and Kudarauskas, says, ‘The problem is that the Firearms Act 1968 has failed to keep pace with the spread of gun culture in this country and its complexity. There is no specific offence of gun running, for example.
Remigijus Laniauskas
Jeanette Hodges

From left to right: Lithuanian Remigijus Laniauskas and the Fence, Jeanette Hodges

'The Government and the country as a whole need to take a fresh look at how we can combat gun culture. The alternative is that this problem will only get worse and society will continue to foot the bill.’

This is ominous. But it is perhaps more disturbing that some of Britain’s criminals are already moving up from Baikals. During the raid on the garage in Alytus, Lithuanian police also found a stash of Agrams – lightweight, rapid-fire machine pistols made in Croatia. New guns, with a new story, making a new journey to Britain’s streets.


PACKED AND READY TO GO...

One of several hauls of ammunition (below) - including 95 9mm cartridges - bought by undercover police from Jeanette Hodges during their four-month surveillance of her house in Carlyle Road, London. The bullets were wrapped in plastic to keep them dry, then packed in a padded envelope and a Warehouse carrier bag. Two of the bullets have been opened by police.

One of several hauls of ammunition

GANG MEMBER:
MUSLIM BOYS

Ricky Dentry

Arrested in 2006 in Romford Road.

A part-time bouncer and member of the Muslim Boys. The south London-based gang has been linked to dozens of shootings. Its ranks number around 200, with a hardcore cadre of about 20. Denty, 28, whose family originally came from Uganda, was jailed for six years after pleading guilty to possession of firearms and ammunition with intent to endanger life.


GANG MEMBER: PECKHAM BOYS
Glenn Jacobs

Arrested in 2006 in Romford Road.

With a string of street-level drug convictions, the 22-year-old soon progressed to handling guns for the notorious Peckham Boys. Police raided his home and discovered guns in his wardrobe. In 2007, he admitted possession of ammunition with intent to endanger life and was sentenced to four years in prison. This sentence will start once he has finished time for a previous conviction for four years for possession of a gun.

THE LITHUANIAN
Remigijus Laniauskas

A soldier in the final days of the Soviet army, Laniauskas was arrested in a police raid and charged with possession and export of firearms. Faces trial in Lithuania later this year.


THE GANGSTER
Romas Dumbliauskas

After his arrest en route to Carlyle Road, the blind Lithuanian was put on trial last summer at Snaresbrook Crown Court, where the two Baikals retrieved from Denty, opposite, were used as evidence against him. He was jailed for five-and-a-half years.


THE POLICEMAN
DS Trevor Gardner

Headed the surveillance of the Shah Jalal Mosque, Romford Road.

He grew up on the same south London estates now dominated by gangs who routinely use guns. He is a member of the Met Police's Racial And Violent Crime Task Force.


THE FENCE
Jeanette Hodges

Lived in Carlyle Road, Manor Park.

The 42-year-old divorcee pleaded guilty to conspiracy to endanger life and was sentenced to 14 years in jail. The irony is that if Hodges had pleaded not guilty she would be serving a fraction of her current sentence because the conspiracy charges were eventually dropped against the other defendants after the judge ruled there was insufficient evidence to support the charge.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Gun Control: What Are the Real Issues?

Published in Le Devoir, September 2, 1992, and La Presse, September 8, 1992; translated and reproduced in English in Aim

Gun Control: What Are the Real Issues?
by
Pierre Lemieux

Unfortunately, tragedy is part of the human condition, death being the final one. It is only natural to try to delay the instant of death to its ultimate moment. We can understand the dull pain, the crushing feelings of helplessness and waste that besiege those who lost a loved one at Concordia, or at Polytechnique in 1989, or at the National Assembly in 1984, or at Du Pont on Dorchester Street in 1971. Also we can well imagine the feelings of distress that must engulf the murderer's family.

However it is more difficult to understand those who, from the comfort of their living rooms, demand new and stricter authoritarian controls after each tragic event that previous laws could not prevent. This is the story behind gun control legislation which, since the beginning of this century, has more or less abolished the right of free men to own and bear arms, a right that was sanctioned in the 1689 Bill of Rights. The laws established in Canada in the thirties and, most importantly, the Federal legislation of 1977 have seriously infringed upon that right. The most recent law is bringing us one step closer to an irrational prohibition.

Why not prohibit alcohol and automobiles, which are responsible for much more tragic accidents, and in the case of alcohol, responsible for a larger number of assaults. The arguments set forth by people who support gun controls are very similar to those of the American Prohibitionists earlier in the century.

Even in a climate of pain and hysteria, and especially in such a climate, one must raise the real issues.

Self-defence

One of the questions that should be asked following tragedies such as those of the Concordia or Polytechnique killings is why didn't anyone try to help the innocent victims? I do not mean the police who cannot and must not be everywhere. But why was the disturbed killer the only one with a weapon? Why wasn't there a discreetly armed guard or an normal professor with a gun to exercise the right to self-defence that John Locke so brilliantly defended 300 years ago? The reason is that simple citizens are not allowed to carry guns and it is getting increasingly difficult for anyone to own a firearm.

Nevertheless, the right and the ability of individuals to defend themselves have often proven beneficial. In 1977 a very disturbed man who had just stabbed two people to death in Las Vegas tried to break into a home occupied by two women. A neighbor took out his gun, rushed to their defense, and shot the killer. On December 17, 1991 two robbers in Anniston, Alabama, took as hostages the customers of a restaurant and locked them up in the cold storage room. The thieves were gunned down by another customer who was hiding underneath a table. These are only a few examples of incidents that occurred in areas where people are allowed to carry guns.

Although guns availability can facilitate crime, it also enables honest citizens to defend themselves. Self-defense is a very effective deterrent. The city police in Orlando, Florida, alarmed by the increasing rape statistics in their city offered handgun training for women. In the following year the number of rapes per 100,000 inhabitants decreased 88% in Orlando (whereas it continued to increase everywhere else in the U.S. as well as in the outskirts of the city).[1] Obviously it is less tempting to assault a woman if there exists the outside chance that she may be carrying a revolver in her handbag.

Irrational controls

Gun control laws in Canada, in England and in United States, have been plagued with the kind of irrationality typical of political and bureaucratic processes. In United States, a second wave of gun control laws was enforced after the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963. The killer had used a high-powered rifle. The new laws were also aimed at controlling shotguns and handguns. Arguments had been made to prevent minors from purchasing mail-order weapons. In the end, everyone wound up being treated as a minor. On August 1st, 1966, Charles Whitman, a disturbed former soldier, killed many passers-by from the top of a tower at the University of Texas in Austin. Even though two weeks earlier a killer had butchered eight student nurses with a knife, firearms were now being blamed for all the violence in the world.

Some local governments had already espoused prohibition, such as New York with the Sullivan Laws of 1911, which virtually prohibited handguns in the metropolis. Some Southern states had legislated gun controls in order to prevent Blacks from owning firearms. Whithin some other states, individuals remain more or less free to own and carry firearms.

It has yet to be established that a causality exists between the availability of firearms and crime. Let us compare New York and Washington, where gun controls are as strict as they are in Canada, to Vermont, one of the states that leaves its citizens the most freedom and which also happens to be one the of the most peaceful states. The main effect of gun control laws is that only criminals end up owning firearms. It is people who kill, guns are only tools among many others. Remember Félix Fénéon, accused of illegally carrying a firearm and who was told by the judge: "You were carrying everything necessary to commit murder", to which the anarchist replied: "I was also carrying everything necessary to commit rape."

Why are the intelligentsia and establishment so vehemently opposed to a citizen's right to keep and bear arms? Because it is Politically Correct? Or is it because they believe that the restrictions will not affect them? In 1981 the Wall Street Journal obtained a court order forcing the New York police to reveal their list of people holding gun permits. Whereas ordinary citizens and people living in dangerous neighborhoods had been disarmed by law for seven decades, the public learned that New York jet-setters had received dispensations in spite of the fact that they lived in safe neighborhoods and travel to their offices in limousines. Even some supporters of a ban on handguns had not hesitated to request and obtain a licence to carry a gun, notably the Rockfeller brothers and the director of the New York Times. The list of privileged handgun licence holders included the husband of Joyce Brothers, a dedicated prohibitionist according to whom the mere possession of a firearm reveals a male sexual dysfunction.

Resistance to tyranny

Then, there is the other questioned, raised by Juvenal: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? When the only armed men left are State agents (and criminals who buy guns on the black market), who will protect us against our protectors? The individual's modern right to own and bear arms was justified by the necessity of resisting tyranny, if need be, as well as for protection against common criminals.

Tyrannic regimes (like that of Vichy, in 1942) always begin by confiscating citizens' firearms, an easy task to accomplish when previous laws have imposed registration. The fate of many Jews arrested by the French National Police on the morning of July 16, 1942 and brought to the "Vel d'Hiv" then shipped to Nazi death camps could have been different had they only possessed arms necessary to defend themselves. One must read the petitions from fighters in the Warsaw ghettos and elsewhere begging outside supporters for firearms. The National Firearms Museum in Washington has on exhibit the rudimentary pistols manufactured for one dollar each that were later parachuted by allied planes to European fighters, disarmed by their own governments before the Invasion.

A gentler and kinder nation?

Whatever happened to the "gentler and kinder nation," the easygoing Canadian society with its social programs aimed at buying peace by bribing the outcasts? This easygoing society is more like a daycare centre for irresponsible individuals, who, having lost all freedom and dignity, have entrusted themselves to their local landlord, that is the State where fate and historic wars have led them to be born.

How can a man hold on to his individual sovereignty, when he is treated like a criminal, facing five years in jail under the Canadian Criminal Code, if he brings his handgun on a family camping trip in the wilderness? When he must ask a bureaucrat for the permission to purchase firearms? When, under present laws (which in fact impose a permanent War Measures Act), he can be searched without a warrant on the pretext that the police is searching for firearms? What kind of society will we become when the citizen-child will be required, in accordance with the new gun control laws, to lock up the firearms he keeps in his home, or have his Firearms Acquisition Certificate signed by two guarantors? (One reassuring fact is the list of possible guarantors include your dentist, your social worker and ... your university professor.)

A free man does not treat his own children in this manner. In a letter to his nephew, Thomas Jefferson recommended shooting which, says Jefferson, "gives boldness, enterprise and independence to the mind."

But the infantilizing society is not good to all. Lepine was but imitating organized and protectionist interest groups who legally make the weaker ones their hostages when he attacked those least able to defend themselves. I would even suggest that this infantilizing society has something to do in the proliferation of blind shootings that occur in Québec, in France and in many countries around the world. The child breaks his toy to show his frustration; the citizen-child takes revenge on everything that moves. One should not however push the argument too far. Jack the Ripper did not wait for the British Welfare State to follow his sadistic impulses.

From false political representations to bureaucratic irrationalities, the Canadian Criminal Code has even forbidden the possession of mace. This self-defence weapon is sold freely in France -- even if this country is not very liberal in this area. Here, shouting and crying are becoming the only legitimate means of self-defense. Many must have cried help at Concordia, on August 24, and at the Polytechnique, on December 6, 1989, but there was nobody who could help.

The risk of being assaulted is less dangerous than the ban on self-defence, especially when one considers that the one increases the other. As Benjamin Franklin said, those who would abandon liberty for security deserve neither one nor the other.

1. See Firearms and Violence, edited by Don B. Kates (San Francisco: Pacific Institute for Public Policy Research, 1984). [Return to text]

Pierre Lemieux, an economist and author, is director of the "Iconoclastes" Collection at Les Belles Lettres. He is presently working on a book on firearms that will be published next year in Paris.

| http://www.pierrelemieux.org |

Monday, January 5, 2009

Will Mexico Fail in 2009 or 2010?

December 31, 2008 | From theTrumpet.com
A brilliant oil bet may pay off for Mexico. But time is running out. By Robert Morley


Mexican officials could be left looking pretty smart if the price of oil keeps falling. Earlier this year, Mexico locked in contracts to sell its oil for $70 per barrel. Since the market price for a barrel recently fell to $35.35 per barrel, America’s largest trade partner south of the border is raking it in. Unfortunately, the fun is about to end for the U.S.’s Mexican neighbors—and that has big implications for America.

Oil is the single most important revenue stream for Mexico. A whopping 40 percent of its budget is derived from oil sales. And as the third-largest supplier of oil to America, most of it heads north to gas stations across the U.S.

However, Mexico could be facing a serious problem.

The Mexican government needs $70-per-barrel oil prices to balance its budget. For now, government spending is covered. But by the end of 2009, its fixed-rate contracts to sell oil at $70 will have expired.

If oil prices are still low by the end of next year, the government could be in real trouble. If oil had to be sold at today’s prices, almost 20 percent of the government’s budget would disappear.

Falling oil prices have already taken their toll on Ecuador, which announced that it would default on its national debt. According to the analysts at Stratfor, Venezuela needs oil at $120 to pay for all its social programs. And since Venezuela recently announced it would be “nationalizing” the nation’s gold mines, it seems like it too could be on the verge of failure.

But in Mexico’s case, falling oil prices are only one problem.

The bigger problem is that its oil production is also plummeting.

Cantarell is Mexico’s super-giant oil field. Located in shallow waters off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, this field alone supplied about 60 percent of Mexico’s output until recently. Output peaked in 2004, after which pumping volumes drastically declined. Production cascaded 13.5 percent in 2006 and 15 percent in 2007, and 2008 looks like it may be an even bigger disaster.

Total oil exports to the United States will be down approximately 17 percent this year.

Making matters worse is that for every 10 barrels of oil pumped out of the ground last year, only four new barrels were discovered. If trends continue, Mexico will stop exporting oil and begin importing it in just four to six years.

If not for record-high oil prices earlier this year, Mexico would have already faced a severe budget crisis. With 40 percent of government revenues at risk, the whole country is in danger of social upheaval.

If Mexico loses its oil revenue, the government will probably collapse.

Mexico is locked in a life or death struggle with various drug cartels. And it is oil revenue that is bankrolling the war. As it stands, it is still not clear whether the army is winning or losing.

Mexico was forced to employ its army to battle the drug lords since its domestic police forces were deemed too corrupt. However, as Stratfor has noted, the longer the war drags on, the more infiltrated and corrupt the army will become. It is not just a battle against drugs, guns and crime, but also against time.

At a press conference early this week, Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora summed up the progress in the fight against the drug cartels by noting that the country’s drug violence has not yet peaked and that the trend of escalating violence in 2008 is expected to continue into the first months of 2009.

Highlighting the violence in the state of Guerrero was the recent gruesome discovery of nine severed heads—eight soldiers and one former state police director. Next to the bodies was a note that read: “For each one of mine that you kill, I will kill ten soldiers” (Stratfor, December 22).

Stratfor says that it is possible that incidents like the above in a prolonged war with the cartels could lower morale to the breaking point. The army could experience the mass walkouts and resignations that crippled local police forces. Desertion is already a chronic problem for the military.

On top of that, falling oil revenues could break the budget and therefore the army.

And if the army breaks, the viability of the Mexican government will be in question.

The possible implications for America are many and include: less oil from Mexico, empowered crime cartels infiltrating the U.S., chaos and social disorder across the border, increased illegal immigration, and diminished trade.

At a time when America’s economy is also facing collapse, an unstable neighbor is the last thing America needs.

For additional information on the economic prospects for Mexico, and how they will affect the U.S., read “Disorder South of the Border.” •


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