Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
1. When will Comex paper gold no longer be able to manipulate the price of gold as they did today and most every day for the last many years?
2. Can the Comex paper gold exchange default?
I wrote the following Sunday to prepare you for the answers to what appears to be the two most pressing questions today.
It is being re-posted now so you can caste my answers against the mechanics of the process outlined below as number 1 through 14.
I prefer to respond to questions with background knowledge first and then answers second in crisp form, not boring professorial essay work.
The Comex will no longer be able to manipulate price as Asia recognizes the dangers inherent in financial institutions and are therefore channelling their business into the cash bullion market. The Asian demand in the cash market then will not be of the kind that runs away from paper supply, but rather one that stands still and takes it. Should there be a shortfall of gold in the bullion market, delivery will be taken out of the COMEX warehouse to make cash bullion deliveries.
You witnessed this to some degree when gold last came up from the high $740s to $933 in a practically straight line. The paper traders could not hedge long in the bullion market because it simply was not there in size.
The supply in the Comex warehouse appears to total 5,864,965 ounces. Multiply this by $800 gold and you have approximately $4.7 billion. In today's 1.144 quadrillion USD plus derivative market, 4.7 billion is a trivial amount. Compare that to recent failure numbers of the Bailout Bill at $700 billion.
As a very conservative comparison, the US dollar market turnover is above one trillion dollars per day.
The Comex does its $20 thing but at that same instant bullion is down only $10 because the buyers are serious and want significant supply. Those that trade between exchanges for differential profit, as Guy Weiser Pratte’s Dad did in true arbitrage, will instantly bring the paper gold up to the bullion bid or thereabouts.
Once this starts the paper gang is out of aces in running the price of gold. It happened in the 70s and will happen again soon.
That soon can be defined as when the Asian professional public recognizes all these rescue attempts are nothing but white wash applied to the crumbling pile of credit crap.
Default is a definitive term dealing with the inability of one party to perform on a contract. The exchange provides a place for other to agree to contracts, not the exchange. Yes members may be both buyer and seller creating a contract, but the exchange never is.
It is certainly probable that large leveraged interests both long and short could fail on a massive position, as might Lehman when it took Chapter 11.
The guarantee on a contract is first through the clearinghouse that pays out to winners every afternoon and demands the loser then pay into the clearinghouse.
As such, a default or failure to pay in as required by the contract could happen at any time in any size.
The next guarantor of the position to the other capable side is the entire asset of the exchange. The final guarantee is all the assets of all the members. This is something like Lloyd’s of London used to be on insurance.
The loss that has to be guaranteed is the difference between yesterday and today as the position was good yesterday having no problem at the close of the exchange hours. If it were not so the problem would have exploded at the clearinghouse last night.
The only way the Comex can default is if they cannot deliver gold from their warehouse in the kind and means of the 100 oz. contract that fits the legal terms of default.
That would leave the exchange and its member short by default. The guarantee would be all the assets of the exchange and of the membership. I believe the clearinghouse is out of that situation yet that most likely would be determined by litigation as plaintiffs dive at deep pockets.
This was what blew silver through $30 to a $54 bid – none offered. It was universally believed that the Hunts were going to demand delivery on all of their silver, and that long position was supposed to be in excess of Comex warehouse supply. For your information, they had no such intention. Believe me, I know better than anyone on that subject.
In summary both questions are answered by watching the settlement months to determine if the delivery of warehouse gold is on the increase.
This definitively ends the paper gold rein of glory.
It might put a bunker and Herbert touch on the gold market. It would take Weimar to some degree to empty the Comex warehouse, but Weimar to some degree is going to happen.
For your information:
Gold will trade at $1200 and $1650. The USDX will trade at .72, .62 and .52.
1. It is axiomatic that the most leveraged gold market most often (95 percent of the time) sets the price of any cash market. First derivatives (listed futures) commands price.
2. This remains true as long as the COMEX warehouse of gold is NOT meaningfully depleted by long gold contracts by taking delivery from the exchange warehouse.
3. As long as an exchange maintains a warehouse that historically overwhelms historical demand for delivery the first derivative, The COMEX listed gold future, will be the primary cause of price.
4. Taking delivery from the COMEX warehouse is not an easy process as the system is designed not to violate your contract but to be a world-class pain in the ass.
5. The COMEX requires re-assays, assuming you wish to re-deliver. This then places another raving pain in the ass in your way.
6. The COMEX market is effectively an international 24-hour market as there is no location where you cannot buy or sell a COMEX clone.
7. Cash bullion gold as opposed to the semi cash markets that non-USA banks trade is the only totally private means of buying and selling gold.
8. As currency problems increase, first the knowledgeable public such as you clean out the coin market.
9. This is the first time that the international coin markets have been cleaned out everywhere. This did not happen globally in the 70s.
10. Large gold bars are still available in major markets but the backup inventory is getting low.
11. As long as the COMEX warehouse remains adequate and large bars still are available, the paper market, the leveraged COMEX market, will rule the price.
12. Only with a decline in COMEX warehouse inventories and a run down in large bar supplies of the cash market will the cash bullion market command the price of the COMEX futures market.
13. It was not the buying by the Hunts that caused silver to move above $30 into the $50 area, but rather the universal belief that they would take delivery, which would deplete or exceeded the COMEX warehouse supply.
14. The War between paper gold and bullion gold is a war to determine which will take command of the price of gold, nothing more, and nothing less. There will be no two markets trading at different prices. All this battle is about is IF the bullion gold market is going to take the lead in making the singular price away from the traditional axiom that the most leveraged market makes the price. I believe the bullion, in these most unique conditions, will command the one gold price making it hard to impossible to manipulate the gold price via the paper gold market, as is the practice every day.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Power failures????
Byron King offers this bold forecast regarding what may be “one major issue within the next 24 months.”
“The headlines will scream,” Byron begins, “‘Power Failures, Price Spikes Plague Northeast U.S.’” And the same thing will also hit the Western U.S. And the Southeast U.S. And parts of the Midwest.
“Do you remember the power failure of Aug. 14, 2003? Almost the entire Northeast U.S. went dark, except it occurred in the middle of the day. The effects were immediate on over 50 million people in the U.S. and Canada.
“Looking back, the utility companies got the power back up and running, right? And the experts investigated the origins of the problem, right? The people who know all about power grids fixed the problem, right? It could not happen again, right? The U.S. power grid has ample electricity-generating capacity, right? And there’s plenty of transmission to move power from one region to another, right?
“Well, no.
“Few utilities or their executives want to take political, regulatory, technical or financial risks. Hence, the entire long-range planning cycle has broken down. It’s almost impossible to decide what to build, and at what scale. Costs are exploding, particularly for new construction. It’s safe to say that most power plant construction cost projections have doubled within the past 18 months. The prospect of fast-changing environmental regulations also adds to the uncertainty. No one wants to build a power plant and learn in five or 10 years or so that environmental regulations are going to shut it down.
“So you might not see it in your daily life -- not yet, anyhow -- but the power industry is currently paralyzed by the uncertainty of lopsided risks. And as old power plants age and go off stream, there will be less and less reserve power. Costs are going to rise. And reliability will fall. It’s inevitable.”
Hmnn.
1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
Chart locations are an approximate indication only
1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
8. "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
14. "... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Get the lead out
Little has been done to remove the potent neurotoxin from city's water supply
By BRYN WEESE, SUN MEDIA
Last Updated: 19th October 2008, 6:59pm
Sixteen months ago, Toronto discovered a cancer under its streets.
Old lead pipes, installed in the 1950s and earlier, were leaching the metal, a potent neurotoxin into tap water — posing a serious health risk to pregnant women and children in particular.
Toronto responded to the provincial order to test drinking water in this city by warning residents living in older homes to flush their taps for at least five minutes before drinking from them, to expedite a lead pipe replacement program and distribute water filters to low-income families.
An investigation by the Sunday Sun has revealed that not only has little progress been made to deal with the lead, tests show the problem has gotten worse.
- Of 8,113 water samples Toronto Central Lab has received from residents for lead testing since June 2007, the average amount of lead in those samples rose from 4.4 parts per billion (ug/L) in 2007 to 5.1 this year.
- One in eight Toronto homeowners -- nearly 1,000 -- who submitted tap water to the city over that time had a lead content in their drinking water that exceeded the provincial standard of 10 ug/L.
- The city has only replaced 5,500 of the 65,000 old water "supply" main connections made of lead or that contain lead that were installed underground prior to 1955.
- Not a single water filter has been passed out to low-income families.
In May 2007, Toronto was one of 36 communities across the province ordered to test local tap water for lead contamination after higher-than-acceptable levels were discovered in London, Ont.
Half of those municipalities found lead levels above provincial standards and in this city, even though just a relative handful of tests were conducted, two of 20 initial tests exceeded standards.
Subsequently, 12 of 160 tests exceeded standards.
The city's response was to "aggressively" replace the 65,000 underground lead service connections.
According to Lou Di Gironimo, Toronto Water's general manager, the city is moving "as quickly as possible" to dig up and replace those toxic connections between the city's water mains and people's property lines. The plan, which costs about $17 million annually and requires a full-time engineer to coordinate the program, will take nine years.
"I'd say the city acted very, very quickly on dealing with the problem," he said. "We put in place a plan to deal with (lead pipe) replacements within nine years. From my perspective, that is extremely quick.
"We're going as quickly as we can, we can't tear up every street in the downtown."
Di Gironimo added the city also prioritizes lead pipe replacements for people whose tests show their water is above the provincial maximum.
From when test results are known, he said, there is a six- to eight-week turnaround.
However, Frank Zechner, the executive director of the Ontario Sewer and Watermain Construction Association, said he believes the city will take longer than nine years to replace its lead service connections.
But even its stated timeline, he charged, is far too slow. Similar programs in the U.S. have mandated timelines to replace lead pipes tied to test results.
"Replacing 5,500 out of 65,000 in just over a year is still a pretty lax pace," Zechner said.
That work also does nothing to address lead pipes and connections that run on an individual's property.
There are, in fact, untold thousands of homes in this city with lead pipes running from the basement to the street but unlike U.S. jurisdictions, Toronto has no proactive program to notify homeowners the pipes on their property may be made from lead.
That means that even if the city replaces lead mains in an old neighbourhood, the pipes going to the houses and apartments will still be lead and the water running to those homes may be contaminated with lead.
Replacing household supply lines is the responsibility of the homeowner and could cost thousands of dollars.
Toronto has also decided not to add sodium hydroxide, or lye, to its drinking water to alter the pH levels, which can slow down the rate of lead corrosion.
Di Gironimo said they monitor the city's water chemistry, but aren't altering it for alkalinity to date.
"That's one thing you can do, the other thing you can do is just take the lead pipe out of the ground, and that's the approach we've taken," Di Gironimo said.
The City of London, where the issue of excessive lead in drinking water was first discovered in May 2007, is doing both.
So far, t ve also begun adding sodium hydroxide to their water to curb it's corrosion of lead.
And according to Jim Merritt, chairman of the Ontario Drinking Water Advisory Council, water chemistry levels are perhaps more important than digging up the lead connections.
"Simply thinking that you can go out and change lead service lines and walk away and say you've solved the problem isn't the right approach," he said. "You should only dig up the lead line pipes and everything else after you've done the other good work and find out where the persistent problems are."
Altering the water's chemistry, something the city isn't doing but Merritt said is a good approach, would be mandated by the province if 10% or more of Torontonians drinking water was in excess of 10 ug/L.
While city tests (of unregulated samples collected by homeowners) show 10 to 12% of residents in older homes have excessive lead levels, the province's first round of twice-annual testing (of regulated samples collected by ministry of environment employees) for 2008 showed only 4% were above the provincial maximum.
"Clearly it indicates to me they're doing well," said Paul Nieweglowski, Ontario's deputy chief drinking water inspector.
In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency mandates that any water system serving more than 50,000 people balance the water's chemistry to reduce its corrosiveness to lead and other heavy metals.
If excessive levels (above the U.S. standard of 15 ug/L) are still found, then 7% of that system's lead service lines must be replaced annually, or until there are no excessive lead test results in two consecutive six-month periods.
The new provincial regulations, introduced in 2007 to deal with the province-wide problem of old lead water pipes, have no such teeth, allowing municipalities to use sodium hydroxide and other "corrective" measures indefinitely.
Toronto, however, is replacing its share of lead connections voluntarily, accelerating the process for homeowners whose lead levels are too high.
But even for those homeowners whose water contains an allowable limit of lead, they may wait up to nine years for their pipes to be lead free.
Lead is a toxin that is especially harmful to children under the age of six, who absorb lead more easily than adults and, because their brains are still developing, can suffer a loss in intelligence and a higher risk of learning disabilities. Some experts suggest there is no "safe" amount of lead a person can drink.
As for the increase in lead levels from last year, Di Gironimo suggested it was "insignificant."
"When you're looking at micrograms, it's very, very small quantities. From an analytical standpoint, that variance is not that significant.
"It's 0.7 of a microgram, it's very insignificant," he said. "At the end of the day, it's simple. We know we have a lead problem, because we have lead services out there, and that's the primary cause, so let's get on and change that."
Until the lead service pipes are removed, Di Gironimo added, there will continue to be lead in the city's drinking water.
The lead levels found in the samples brought in to the city, even if they are rising, are still well within the provincial limit, he said.
But Merritt said municipalities shouldn't necessarily concern themselves with whether the lead level in the water is below the provincial standard, but should pay more attention to the trends.
"They shouldn't get to fixed on the standard (of 10 ug/L). The standard is there and it's an important thing to have, but the other thing they need to be cognizant of is their trends," he said. "If you're trending in the wrong direction, then that should be a sign that you need to be taking action at that point, not waiting until you exceed the standard.
"If your trends are indicating that these levels are increasing, then even though you're below the standard that should tell you that there's something going on and you need to reexamine why those trends are going up, even if you're well below the standard," he added.
"That, to me, is good due diligence practice."
"Simply thinking that you can go out and change lead service lines and walk away and say you've solved the problem isn't the right approach," he said.
Following the results of the province-wide testing 16 months ago, the province ordered all school boards and daycares to beef up their testing regimes and initiate daily "flushing" of the water pipes to get rid of stagnant water that could have accumulated more lead.
Earlier this fall, the Toronto District School Board, which still flushes the water from all their schools' lines each morning, said none of their properties showed unsafe levels of lead.
Residents of older homes built before 1952 are also encouraged to flush their system each morning by running the tap for five minutes after each six-hour period of stagnation.
But flushing water can be costly, especially with city water rates rising 9% this year and the next three at least, and even after flushing, the amount of lead in the water can still be too high for pregnant women and children under the age of seven.
The Sun has learned, though, that no one has taken advantage of the city's Water Filter Fund, which with provincial money, gives $100 to low-income families for a water filter.
The program is for families who make less than $20,000 annually, have excess levels of lead in their water, and have a child under six or a pregnant woman.
According to Brenda Nesbitt with the city's social services department that administers the province's program, one reason it might not be being used is because the criteria is so strict.
Peter Tabuns, the environment critic for the NDP, said the fact that no one has taken up the Ministry of Environment's offer for the Water Filter Fund proves it has "failed."
"If the water filter program has had no one pick up on it whatsoever, then there are clearly mothers and children out there that are at risk," he said. "The province should be moving quickly to reach those parents and children. The criteria has to change ... because kids are drinking lead in their water and they shouldn't be."
Environment Minister John Gerretsen was contacted but was not available for comment.
---
USE COLD WATER, AND OTHER WAYS TO TACKLE TOXINS FROM YOUR TAP
- Toronto residents can call 416-392-2894 to have the city test tap water at no cost.
- People concerned about lead should flush their pipes each morning by letting the water run for five minutes or by flushing the toilet and washing their hands.
- Those with concerns about lead should also use cold water for drinking, cooking or preparing baby formula. Hot water dissolves more lead from plumbing.
- Pipes that deliver water from the city's main distribution lines to homes built before 1955 often contained lead.
- Lead in faucets, fixtures and solder used to connect copper pipes prior to the late 1980s can also contribute to lead problems.
- Toronto has about 500,000 pipes that run from main distribution lines to residential properties. Of that total, 55,000 still contain lead.
-The city is responsible for the portion of the pipe that runs from the main water distribution line to the boundary of someone's property. A homeowner is responsible for the section from the property line to a house.
- It typically costs a homeowner from $1,000 to $2,500 to replace their section of a lead water delivery pipe.
-- Source: City of Toronto
By BRYN WEESE, SUN MEDIA
Last Updated: 19th October 2008, 6:59pm
Sixteen months ago, Toronto discovered a cancer under its streets.
Old lead pipes, installed in the 1950s and earlier, were leaching the metal, a potent neurotoxin into tap water — posing a serious health risk to pregnant women and children in particular.
Toronto responded to the provincial order to test drinking water in this city by warning residents living in older homes to flush their taps for at least five minutes before drinking from them, to expedite a lead pipe replacement program and distribute water filters to low-income families.
An investigation by the Sunday Sun has revealed that not only has little progress been made to deal with the lead, tests show the problem has gotten worse.
- Of 8,113 water samples Toronto Central Lab has received from residents for lead testing since June 2007, the average amount of lead in those samples rose from 4.4 parts per billion (ug/L) in 2007 to 5.1 this year.
- One in eight Toronto homeowners -- nearly 1,000 -- who submitted tap water to the city over that time had a lead content in their drinking water that exceeded the provincial standard of 10 ug/L.
- The city has only replaced 5,500 of the 65,000 old water "supply" main connections made of lead or that contain lead that were installed underground prior to 1955.
- Not a single water filter has been passed out to low-income families.
In May 2007, Toronto was one of 36 communities across the province ordered to test local tap water for lead contamination after higher-than-acceptable levels were discovered in London, Ont.
Half of those municipalities found lead levels above provincial standards and in this city, even though just a relative handful of tests were conducted, two of 20 initial tests exceeded standards.
Subsequently, 12 of 160 tests exceeded standards.
The city's response was to "aggressively" replace the 65,000 underground lead service connections.
According to Lou Di Gironimo, Toronto Water's general manager, the city is moving "as quickly as possible" to dig up and replace those toxic connections between the city's water mains and people's property lines. The plan, which costs about $17 million annually and requires a full-time engineer to coordinate the program, will take nine years.
"I'd say the city acted very, very quickly on dealing with the problem," he said. "We put in place a plan to deal with (lead pipe) replacements within nine years. From my perspective, that is extremely quick.
"We're going as quickly as we can, we can't tear up every street in the downtown."
Di Gironimo added the city also prioritizes lead pipe replacements for people whose tests show their water is above the provincial maximum.
From when test results are known, he said, there is a six- to eight-week turnaround.
However, Frank Zechner, the executive director of the Ontario Sewer and Watermain Construction Association, said he believes the city will take longer than nine years to replace its lead service connections.
But even its stated timeline, he charged, is far too slow. Similar programs in the U.S. have mandated timelines to replace lead pipes tied to test results.
"Replacing 5,500 out of 65,000 in just over a year is still a pretty lax pace," Zechner said.
That work also does nothing to address lead pipes and connections that run on an individual's property.
There are, in fact, untold thousands of homes in this city with lead pipes running from the basement to the street but unlike U.S. jurisdictions, Toronto has no proactive program to notify homeowners the pipes on their property may be made from lead.
That means that even if the city replaces lead mains in an old neighbourhood, the pipes going to the houses and apartments will still be lead and the water running to those homes may be contaminated with lead.
Replacing household supply lines is the responsibility of the homeowner and could cost thousands of dollars.
Toronto has also decided not to add sodium hydroxide, or lye, to its drinking water to alter the pH levels, which can slow down the rate of lead corrosion.
Di Gironimo said they monitor the city's water chemistry, but aren't altering it for alkalinity to date.
"That's one thing you can do, the other thing you can do is just take the lead pipe out of the ground, and that's the approach we've taken," Di Gironimo said.
The City of London, where the issue of excessive lead in drinking water was first discovered in May 2007, is doing both.
So far, t ve also begun adding sodium hydroxide to their water to curb it's corrosion of lead.
And according to Jim Merritt, chairman of the Ontario Drinking Water Advisory Council, water chemistry levels are perhaps more important than digging up the lead connections.
"Simply thinking that you can go out and change lead service lines and walk away and say you've solved the problem isn't the right approach," he said. "You should only dig up the lead line pipes and everything else after you've done the other good work and find out where the persistent problems are."
Altering the water's chemistry, something the city isn't doing but Merritt said is a good approach, would be mandated by the province if 10% or more of Torontonians drinking water was in excess of 10 ug/L.
While city tests (of unregulated samples collected by homeowners) show 10 to 12% of residents in older homes have excessive lead levels, the province's first round of twice-annual testing (of regulated samples collected by ministry of environment employees) for 2008 showed only 4% were above the provincial maximum.
"Clearly it indicates to me they're doing well," said Paul Nieweglowski, Ontario's deputy chief drinking water inspector.
In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency mandates that any water system serving more than 50,000 people balance the water's chemistry to reduce its corrosiveness to lead and other heavy metals.
If excessive levels (above the U.S. standard of 15 ug/L) are still found, then 7% of that system's lead service lines must be replaced annually, or until there are no excessive lead test results in two consecutive six-month periods.
The new provincial regulations, introduced in 2007 to deal with the province-wide problem of old lead water pipes, have no such teeth, allowing municipalities to use sodium hydroxide and other "corrective" measures indefinitely.
Toronto, however, is replacing its share of lead connections voluntarily, accelerating the process for homeowners whose lead levels are too high.
But even for those homeowners whose water contains an allowable limit of lead, they may wait up to nine years for their pipes to be lead free.
Lead is a toxin that is especially harmful to children under the age of six, who absorb lead more easily than adults and, because their brains are still developing, can suffer a loss in intelligence and a higher risk of learning disabilities. Some experts suggest there is no "safe" amount of lead a person can drink.
As for the increase in lead levels from last year, Di Gironimo suggested it was "insignificant."
"When you're looking at micrograms, it's very, very small quantities. From an analytical standpoint, that variance is not that significant.
"It's 0.7 of a microgram, it's very insignificant," he said. "At the end of the day, it's simple. We know we have a lead problem, because we have lead services out there, and that's the primary cause, so let's get on and change that."
Until the lead service pipes are removed, Di Gironimo added, there will continue to be lead in the city's drinking water.
The lead levels found in the samples brought in to the city, even if they are rising, are still well within the provincial limit, he said.
But Merritt said municipalities shouldn't necessarily concern themselves with whether the lead level in the water is below the provincial standard, but should pay more attention to the trends.
"They shouldn't get to fixed on the standard (of 10 ug/L). The standard is there and it's an important thing to have, but the other thing they need to be cognizant of is their trends," he said. "If you're trending in the wrong direction, then that should be a sign that you need to be taking action at that point, not waiting until you exceed the standard.
"If your trends are indicating that these levels are increasing, then even though you're below the standard that should tell you that there's something going on and you need to reexamine why those trends are going up, even if you're well below the standard," he added.
"That, to me, is good due diligence practice."
"Simply thinking that you can go out and change lead service lines and walk away and say you've solved the problem isn't the right approach," he said.
Following the results of the province-wide testing 16 months ago, the province ordered all school boards and daycares to beef up their testing regimes and initiate daily "flushing" of the water pipes to get rid of stagnant water that could have accumulated more lead.
Earlier this fall, the Toronto District School Board, which still flushes the water from all their schools' lines each morning, said none of their properties showed unsafe levels of lead.
Residents of older homes built before 1952 are also encouraged to flush their system each morning by running the tap for five minutes after each six-hour period of stagnation.
But flushing water can be costly, especially with city water rates rising 9% this year and the next three at least, and even after flushing, the amount of lead in the water can still be too high for pregnant women and children under the age of seven.
The Sun has learned, though, that no one has taken advantage of the city's Water Filter Fund, which with provincial money, gives $100 to low-income families for a water filter.
The program is for families who make less than $20,000 annually, have excess levels of lead in their water, and have a child under six or a pregnant woman.
According to Brenda Nesbitt with the city's social services department that administers the province's program, one reason it might not be being used is because the criteria is so strict.
Peter Tabuns, the environment critic for the NDP, said the fact that no one has taken up the Ministry of Environment's offer for the Water Filter Fund proves it has "failed."
"If the water filter program has had no one pick up on it whatsoever, then there are clearly mothers and children out there that are at risk," he said. "The province should be moving quickly to reach those parents and children. The criteria has to change ... because kids are drinking lead in their water and they shouldn't be."
Environment Minister John Gerretsen was contacted but was not available for comment.
---
USE COLD WATER, AND OTHER WAYS TO TACKLE TOXINS FROM YOUR TAP
- Toronto residents can call 416-392-2894 to have the city test tap water at no cost.
- People concerned about lead should flush their pipes each morning by letting the water run for five minutes or by flushing the toilet and washing their hands.
- Those with concerns about lead should also use cold water for drinking, cooking or preparing baby formula. Hot water dissolves more lead from plumbing.
- Pipes that deliver water from the city's main distribution lines to homes built before 1955 often contained lead.
- Lead in faucets, fixtures and solder used to connect copper pipes prior to the late 1980s can also contribute to lead problems.
- Toronto has about 500,000 pipes that run from main distribution lines to residential properties. Of that total, 55,000 still contain lead.
-The city is responsible for the portion of the pipe that runs from the main water distribution line to the boundary of someone's property. A homeowner is responsible for the section from the property line to a house.
- It typically costs a homeowner from $1,000 to $2,500 to replace their section of a lead water delivery pipe.
-- Source: City of Toronto
Judicial Inc account suspended.
Three Years Of Constant Hassles
Over the past three years Judicial's hosting companies, Bluehost, Tripod, ATT, NetHost, and GoDaddy have been pressured by Zionists to cancel the account.
* 2006.....Bluehost cut service on and off
* 2008.... With no notice, Bluehost totally shut down the Judicial website, and blocks file retrieval
* 2008.....Google de-listed the website
* 2008.....France totally banned the website
* 2008.....GoDaddy revokes, and blocks transfer, of Judicial's domain name because a 'Mystery person' said Judicial was political anarchist website
In addition there has been GPS tracking bugs on my cars, constant stalking, thirty indirect threats of which 10 cops and 4 police detectives were involved.
GoDaddy Special Interest
Go-Daddy is a giant company that has six million domain names under it's registrar, so why the intense interest in this site? It turns out that they donated $4.5 million to McCain and Judicial's pages on McCain were getting 2000 views a day.
Why The Pressure On Judicial?
Needless to say if Judicial's theory that there will be a nuclear False Flag in American, followed by by a nuclear exchange in the Persian Gulf, and ending in economic chaos comes to fruition, the last thing the Zionist want is a website like Judicial floating around.
What Effect Does Judicial Have?
Some theories (Lindbergh's child murder, the OKC bombing, Entebbe, etc) have drawn out major revisionists, and whose protests exposed them as Zio-Flunkies. The Baghdad sniper who killed 150 US soldiers suddenly disappeared when the fact the weapon's system was Israeli. A insignificant picture like this has gotten 2 million views.
Why Are Other Websites Left Alone?
You need to realize that 90% of these so called rebel websites are nothing but watered-downed Zionist fronts. When all a site can say is "Israel knew about 9/11 and tried to warn us, but we didn't listen", the website is worthless. And the simple truth is not one major site says Israel orchestrated 9/11.
What's The Future
Judicial's intent was to tread water, providing some articles on the background on today's event, and at sometime soon in the near future it could act as a starting point for a small political movement bulletin board.
The end result is the Judicial site needs to go offshore, and you need to decide if you want to help fund it. I will set an email account, and you can make a non-binding pledge If there is enough interest I will set up an PayPal, or cash account of some sort, and then you can donate.
Over the past three years Judicial's hosting companies, Bluehost, Tripod, ATT, NetHost, and GoDaddy have been pressured by Zionists to cancel the account.
* 2006.....Bluehost cut service on and off
* 2008.... With no notice, Bluehost totally shut down the Judicial website, and blocks file retrieval
* 2008.....Google de-listed the website
* 2008.....France totally banned the website
* 2008.....GoDaddy revokes, and blocks transfer, of Judicial's domain name because a 'Mystery person' said Judicial was political anarchist website
In addition there has been GPS tracking bugs on my cars, constant stalking, thirty indirect threats of which 10 cops and 4 police detectives were involved.
GoDaddy Special Interest
Go-Daddy is a giant company that has six million domain names under it's registrar, so why the intense interest in this site? It turns out that they donated $4.5 million to McCain and Judicial's pages on McCain were getting 2000 views a day.
Why The Pressure On Judicial?
Needless to say if Judicial's theory that there will be a nuclear False Flag in American, followed by by a nuclear exchange in the Persian Gulf, and ending in economic chaos comes to fruition, the last thing the Zionist want is a website like Judicial floating around.
What Effect Does Judicial Have?
Some theories (Lindbergh's child murder, the OKC bombing, Entebbe, etc) have drawn out major revisionists, and whose protests exposed them as Zio-Flunkies. The Baghdad sniper who killed 150 US soldiers suddenly disappeared when the fact the weapon's system was Israeli. A insignificant picture like this has gotten 2 million views.
Why Are Other Websites Left Alone?
You need to realize that 90% of these so called rebel websites are nothing but watered-downed Zionist fronts. When all a site can say is "Israel knew about 9/11 and tried to warn us, but we didn't listen", the website is worthless. And the simple truth is not one major site says Israel orchestrated 9/11.
What's The Future
Judicial's intent was to tread water, providing some articles on the background on today's event, and at sometime soon in the near future it could act as a starting point for a small political movement bulletin board.
The end result is the Judicial site needs to go offshore, and you need to decide if you want to help fund it. I will set an email account, and you can make a non-binding pledge If there is enough interest I will set up an PayPal, or cash account of some sort, and then you can donate.
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